Published by Andrew Young (younaj21@wfu.edu)
A New System
A commonly held belief among seasoned fantasy football players is that early in the draft one should look to target running backs. Some believe in this idea so strongly that they consider ignoring the position early to be a killing blow to the likelihood of assembling a winning team for the season. However, looking at the point outputs shows that on average quarterbacks consistently outperform running backs on a points per game basis. Fantasy football games are won based solely on points scored. Thus, what is the reason for this discrepancy between point output and assumed value of players?
The answer is that the point output of an individual player is almost irrelevant, what matters is their output relative to their positional peers. A running back is not valuable based on his points compared to all players, he is valuable based on how his output compares to other running backs. Quality running backs, fantasy football wise, are incredibly scarce. Running backs who can produce well and consistently prove to be a very valuable asset. This explains why running backs are deemed extremely valuable early in drafts. Applying this logic across all positions in fantasy football explains the heuristics that thousands of fantasy football players use to manage their teams. But what if there were a way to quantify this heuristic?
In order to create a better metric for valuing the performance of fantasy football players, the statistic needs to account for the different scoring outcomes across positions. A twenty point performance from a quarterback wouldn’t be expected to truly move the needle, but a twenty point performance from a tight end definitely would. The desired measure should have a built in way to isolate the value of a performance relative to the other players from that position. Measuring the performance of players on a per game basis rather than their overall body of work is also preferable. Players who remain healthy, yet produce middling results, build up more total points than those who missed a few games. Basing the metric on a per game basis accounts for this, and instead highlights players who make a larger impact when they do play. However, building up a sufficient resume of games played is still important for any rate statistic. I chose to set the cutoffs at the same levels Pro Football reference does in order to weed out potential outliers.
Analyzing all qualified players on a points per game basis is great within a position, but it still fails to account for different impacts across positions. To adjust for position, it is important to circle back to the logic of what inherently makes fantasy football players valuable. Points in of themselves do not matter, point output relative to other players the position matters. If the goal is to determine how valuable players are on a per start basis, then players should be measured by how they score relative to the theoretical best bench option and worst starting option. Standard ESPN fantasy leagues utilize starting lineups of: one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one flex player (For this exercise I am not bothering to include the kicker and defense as these positions typically take low priority in drafting anyways). Standard leagues also possess ten teams and use PPR scoring.
Using this information on the amount of teams and total starters, it can be determined how many players are starting caliber and what that level of production is. Furthermore, this information states what rank of a player within a position group starts to be bench caliber. Averaging out the worst starting caliber player’s production and the best bench worthy player’s production creates a median value that all starters exceed and all bench players fall below. I decided to call this the baseline value of points per game for a position group. Dividing a player’s points per game by the baseline points per game then gives us the ratio of an individual’s points per game relative to the baseline of their position. Finally, multiplying this number by 100 gives the ratio a presentation similar to the OPS+ statistic from baseball. The statistic’s difference from 100 is the percentage difference in points per game for the player compared to the baseline for their position. Values over 100 represent players who exceed the baseline, while values below 100 belong to players who fail to on average clear the baseline level of points. I have chosen to preliminarily call this statistic Fantasy Points Per Game Plus (FPPG+).
FPPG+ = (X) Player’s Points Per Game / Baseline Points Per Game of Position
Top 10 Players in FPPG+ For the 2022-2023 NFL Season
Adjusting each player’s points per game output by position more accurately showcases the true value of fantasy football players. Regardless of the fact that quarterbacks consistently score the most points, the first quarterback does not appear until Josh Allen at number fourteen with a score of 138.77. The ten players on the list above produce more points than their alternatives in comparison to the elite quarterbacks, making them more valuable to a fantasy team. Travis Kelce leads this statistic by a significant margin due to incredible performances he has compared to the usually paltry outputs from tight ends.
Progression in FPPG+ Over Position Rank Using 2022 Data
Plotting how FPPG+ progresses over time across various positions reveals some interesting insights about different position groups in fantasy football. With the exception of Travis Kelce, the first few running back options appear to be the most valuable players in all of fantasy football. Elite running backs are closely followed by wide receivers, and are subsequently overtaken after the elite tier has been exhausted. Moving towards the bench caliber talent for these two positions displays that on average bench quality wide receivers are able to more closely match starter level production than bench quality running backs. The optimal way to maximize the FPPG+ between these positions appears to be focusing on elite RB talent early, choosing the best available in the middle tier of talent, then prioritizing wide receivers as one moves further into the draft. Reading this graph also reveals the diminished value of an elite quarterback compared to other positions as well as the discrepancy in output after the first few elite players. The decline of FPPG+ for quarterbacks is minimal, starting at the range for typical second tier options players. Being the first to get in on this second tier of talent then, proves to be a potential draft inefficiency.
Top 10 Quarterbacks in FPPG+ For 2022
Analyzing quarterbacks by FPPG+ does not produce any surprising results amongst the elite tier. Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts are three of the league’s MVP finalists and all had fantastic seasons. Transitioning to a points per game metric really benefits Justin Fields, who finished 5th in this metric for quarterbacks on the season. Aided in large part due to his exceptional running abilities, 48% of Field’s points were produced with his legs, Fields enjoyed a breakout season fantasy wise that allowed him to massively exceed his preseason expectations. Running quarterbacks in general frequently appeared on this top ten list. Allen, Hurts, Fields, Jackson, and Murray all utilize running the ball as a key aspect of their games.
Top 10 Running Backs in FPPG+ For 2022
Considering FPPG+ alone, the 5th best running back this season was just as valuable as the premier quarterback. The numbers possessed by some of the players at the top of this list are particularly impressive. Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and nearly Henry each produced 50% more points per game then the baseline level of player. After these few there is a sharp dropoff heading into the second tier of players headlined by Saquon Barkley, who enjoyed a resurgent season. Another notable performance amongst this second group is Tony Pollard, who despite being the backup entering the season, outpaced his much higher paid teammate Ezekial Elliot by 24.77 points of FPPG+. Pollard, for his efforts, now hits free agency where the Cowboys might struggle to retain his services once he reaches the open market of free agency.
Top 10 Wide Receivers in FPPG+ For 2022
Second tier wide receivers seem able to more closely contend with the upper echelon of the position compared to other positions. Cooper Kupp leads the group on a per game basis despite only suiting up for nine games this year due to a season derailing ankle injury. Despite only appearing in those nine games, Kupp made enough of an impact in his limited appearances to clear the qualifying threshold. Apart from Kupp, Justin Jefferson led the rest of the pack by a fair margin due to his terrific season.
Top 10 Tight Ends in FPPG+ For 2022
Travis Kelce outpaces his fellow tight ends in this metric by a comical degree. Kelce’s score of 203.24 is not only by far the highest score among tight ends, it is also easily the highest score among all players from the past season. Kelce’s lead over the second best tight end, George Kittle, is larger than Kittle’s lead over the baseline value. After Kelce, there is a decent crop of quality tight ends. However, the FPPG+ value on these players are not as high as the upper tier options for running backs and wide receivers. Selecting quality tight ends is important due to their scarcity, but they overall provide less added benefit than drafting other positions.
The goal of creating this metric was to create a measure for valuing fantasy players while controlling for position. FPPG+ accomplishes that by finding a baseline value for each position and determining how much value above or below that value a player adds on average. There are future avenues where this statistic could be explored even further. Beyond controlling for position, controlling for season would allow for historical comparisons as the league scoring environment has shifted over time. Furthermore, an analysis of the typical seasonal distribution of FPPG+ scores and its correlation with pre season rankings could also similarly provide insight into draft day strategy. FPPG+ provides another avenue through which fantasy football performance can be measured and valued.
Data Sources:
Pro Football Reference. 2022 NFL Fantasy Rankings.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/fantasy.htm
Wake Forest Sports Analytics Club 